[PhD defence] 5/12/2024 - Noé CARLES: "From tsunami warning to population safety in the French Mediterranean: from a scenario-based approach to an agent-based model" (UMR ESPACE)

Noé CARLES will submit his thesis on 5 December 2024 on the theme: "From tsunami warning to population safety in the French Mediterranean: from a scenario-based approach to an agent-based model".

Laboratory

UMR 7300 ESPACE - Study of Structures, Adaptation Processes and Changes in Space

Composition of the jury

Mr Johnny DOUVINET	Avignon University	Thesis supervisor
Mr Matthieu PéROCHE	University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3	Thesis co-supervisor
Mr Frédéric LEONE	University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3	Examiner
Mrs Hélène HéBERT	CENALT (CEA)	Examiner
Mr Emmanuel TRIC	Côte d'Azur University	Examiner
Ms Lydie GOELDNER-GIANELLA	Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne	Rapporteur
Ms Julie DUGDALE	Grenoble Alpes University	Rapporteur
Ludovic PINGANAUD	ATRISC	Guest

Summary

Population growth and increasing urbanisation in the French Mediterranean basin since the end of the 19th century have helped to increase its exposure to the tsunami hazard. However, these phenomena are rare and little is known about them, which makes it difficult for local players to fully understand the repercussions that such an event could have on their area. These 'high-impact, low-probability' events are often insufficiently anticipated and poorly integrated into the operational response, and preventive action remains limited compared with other risks linked to more frequent hazards (floods, forest fires). In this context, while many studies focus on the tsunami hazard and forecasting tools, the aim of this thesis was to highlight the interaction effects and scale effects on warning activation times, preparation times and times for bringing people to safety, by combining observations and empirical data and integrating them into an agent-based simulation model. The aim of this work was also to improve our understanding and knowledge of tsunami warnings, and to question the issues raised by an evacuation by combining scientific and operational viewpoints. The agent-based model was used to simulate the spatial and temporal consequences of different warning strategies applied to the commune of Cannes. The analysis of the scenarios shows that the success of the evacuation depends as much on the decisions taken by the authorities as on the time taken to prepare and the distance from which people can be brought to safety. The speed and coordination of actions are crucial, but they must be adapted to the specific characteristics of the area, such as the range of warning systems, the size of the areas to be evacuated, and the socio-demographic characteristics of the inhabitants. These factors influence the response of the population and the leeway available to the authorities to take action. Above all, evacuation strategies need to be tailored to the local context if we are to maximise the effectiveness of the alert.

Keywords : Alert, Tsunami, Agent-based simulation, Scenarios, Preparation time